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drh65

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24/08/20

19:56

Post #: 46779890
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Originally posted by SF@HC ↑

Yes agree there is latent supply, but Wodgina product will be used at ALB's conversion facilities. It's important to consider that while the oz spod producers are running at ~45% of nameplate, conversion capacity hasn't stood still, in fact many new producers will come on line over the coming 12 months, and Ganfeng took over the management of a 30kt facility last week, while their 50kt hydroxide plant is ready to come on line before year end. Excluding Ganfeng's existing capacity, the above 80kt of new conversion capacity would require ~600kt of 6% spod.

Then there is POSCO, with 75kt of conversion capacity to be commissioned late next year (~315kt of spod required), Pilbara's new offtake partner Yibin Tianyi requires a minimum of 75kt pa from January 2021, only taking 60kt this CY.

Other thing to consider, prices will rise ahead of any deficit, otherwise producers wont ramp to nameplate, no incentive to do so. Like Glencore keeping it's Mutanda copper/cobalt project on C&M until prices rise. Chinese have reneged on floor prices for spod, maybe time they get a bit of their own medicine, with the Li producers sitting on their hands just that little bit longer, as the EU explodes and China's vehicle demand normalizes.

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Great post SF

PLS Price at posting: 35.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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