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Rethinking Energy 2020-2030

Some on here may be familiar with Tony Seba and his writings on disruptive technologies, and more recently in his think-tank ‘RethinkX’. I haven’t seen anyone post an update yet on what I believe to be a profound report which puts the battery storage market front and centre heading towards 2030.

‘Rethinking Energy 2020-2030’, is their latest report which establishes battery storage as a key component in a renewables cocktail which results in ‘Super Power’, and it's a fitting word.

https://www.rethinkx.com/energy

I’ve summarised the key points along with their with diagrams:

Summary

• SWB system – Solar, Wind, Battery. Which is any combination of the three, dependent upon geographical location.

• SWB disruption is now inevitable; it will happen, it’s only a matter of when.

• One of the most counterintuitive and extraordinary properties of the new system is that it will produce a much larger amount of energy overall, and that this superabundance of clean energy output, calledSuper Power–available at near-zero marginal cost throughout much of the year in nearly all populated locations.

• When the SWB capacity mix is optimized for cost, this least-expensive system will have3x-5x more generating capacity than today’s grid. As a result, any 100% SWB system will produce an extremely large amount of surplus electricity.

This will result in not just replacing the old fossil energy systems but rapidly accelerating past its peak consumption. Seba demonstrates that all new tech does this. E.g. Fax to email use.

Super Power

A remarkable property of 100% SWB systems is that they show disproportional returns on investment for super power with an additional 20% investment yielding a further 200-300% more power!!

To get a perspective of this RethinkX estimates a VW Golf requires 18,000 kWh in energy to produce, costing $2,160 at current 12 cents. Implementing the Super Power system at 20% additional investment would drop the per kW price to 1.3 cents, costing VW just $260 in energy, that’s a10x saving.

Applications

The SWB disruption of energy will closely parallel the digital disruption of information technology. Just as computers and the Internet slashed the marginal cost of information and opened the door to hundreds of new business models that collectively have had a transformative impact upon the global economy

Examples of high energy applications include:

• Electrification of road transportation

• Water desalination

• Waste processing

• Metal smelting

• Chemical manufacturing

• Cryptocurrency mining

• Distributed computing

• Duel production

• Carbon removal

• Manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries themselves

Conclusion

With this perspective in mind, I believe that the future demand for battery storage market has been heavily mis-judged, from raw materials all the way up-to Tesla.

It has changed my perspective in that a SWB system, rather than reduce energy consumption, will create an abundance in energy, likened to information flowing from the internet. DYODD.