i wrote my thesis on NPD new product development. you have to look at the time to bring this technology to market and whether it would deliver improvements are worthy of developing the technology. Tesla have spent 20 years developing lithium batteries to deliver the capability required.
let's follow this logic through. spend $50billion over 10years and they may be able to bring this technology to market. problem is that with Tesla batteries these will be 1milion mile batteries and so unlikely people will switch their cars just to buy a battery that gives 10% better range.
also the risk is focusing on future technologies rather than the immediate necessity of just actually competing with Tesla and VW might mean Toyota gets left behind.
Do you bet the future of Toyota on not yet proven technology ? No. for sure they should develop this technology but that will mean perhaps 10-15 years before they come to market.
Good News & Bad News, page-9257
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