Good news, bad news, page-358

I won't comment too much on fundamentals as I haven't taken a deep dive yet, although I note it's on enormous multiple 121x which is well above historical average; price to book is 11.13 which on the face of it is very high (although I need to compare closer to industry avg before determining this value); ROE not bad but not great at 9.70%; is EPS expected to drop FY22 also? On face of it, appears to be priced to perfection. Please feel free to jump in here with comments/corrections as well.

From a purely technical POV, the current price action is very similar to previous retracements, in that most retrace to 38.2% fibonacci level (with the exception of Covid low which was a full 100% retracement and 9/2020 which was 61.8%), which we saw this time with 17 November low of $67.80...right on 38.2% fib level.

Technically, noting price has broken through 21 day moving average and has failed to bounce and break back through it so downtrend remains thus for now. 50 day moving average sits at around $61.46 which is just below 50% retrace at $63.30 so I think $64ish is on cards if horizontal support at approx. $65.50 doesn't hold. Weekly MACD still has longer to fall as does RSI which sits above the average RSI of the previous 5 corrections at approx. 42.5 (currently 54.82).

So it's a wait and see for me personally and I'd like to buy between 61.8% & 78.6% fib levels eg $52.33->$58.78 (and preferably lower). There is a nice 15 month range that occurred approx. June 2020 - Sep 2021 between approx. $45 and $55 - that'd be a nice entry for me.

Regards, Roger Montgomery (who has been selling this company hard in the media at every chance he gets) bullishness, I remain sceptical. Do you have any experience with his calls on previous stocks of yours?