Done some of
@dfs1 back of the beer coaster calculations. Therefore fine to poke holes where you see fit - however I've leaned towards the conservative side throughout (underestimating production + increasing expenditure).
Let's assume for a minute that it is late September 2023, a whole 16 months into the future. Ngungaju has been ramped to capacity and has been operating for a full 12 months.
Revenues:
180,000dmt (worst case scenario) produced and shipped from Ngungaju on the BMX platform for the year at a price of USD $5,955/tonne. = $1.072 Billion USD = $1.510 Billion AUD.
360,000 dmt produced and shipped from the Pilgan plant on existing offtake prices of USD $4,300 (worst case scenario guidance from this quarter) = $1.548 Billion USD = $2.180 Billion AUD.
Expenses:$949 AUD per dmt of operating costs (as per previous quarterly - which are expected to come back down) = $512,460,000. This is catch all for shipping + royalties and mining production costs, and will fluctuate with sales prices attained.
Approximately $63,495,240 AUD P+I paid off the bond over the course of 12 months (very approximate as don't know the full terms of the bond - however went worst case).
We then pay corporate tax at the full rate on all our gross revenues of $1.118 Billion AUD. Therefore assuming no deductions, offsets, asset write downs etc. Which is more tax than most oil and gas companies in Australia (if not all of them combined...). This is more of a catch all expense in my calcs, so if I've forgotten something it is more than accounted for here.
Conservative Net profit calculation: $2.034 Billion AUD for the full year ending 30 September 2023. Note, these calculations obviously exclude P680 + P1000 + POSCO + CALIX revenues and expenses.
The worst case scenario detailed in the following announcement for P680 + P1000 funding is $286 million AUD. Ken has said it's likely to be more, so to be on the safe side let's double this cost to $572 million AUD - which I think should give us a fair margin for error.
https://1pls.irmau.com/site/PDF/21c3c516-a1cf-49b9-a2fd-ac4a93b8a519/UpdateonPartneringProcessandRevisedStage2Let's now assume P680 and P1000 have been in operation for 12 months - whilst we get the same prices as we do now and pay the same costs as we do now.
Revenues:180,000 dmt from Ngungaju onto BMX at USD $5,955/t = $1.072 Billion USD = $1.510 Billion AUD.
820,000 dmt from Pilgan at USD $4,300 = $3.526 Billion USD = $4.966 Billion AUD.
Expenses: $949 AUD per dmt of operating costs = $949,000,000 AUD.
Approximately $63,495,240 AUD P+I paid off the bond over the course of 12 months. Left this as is - even though this will likely be repaid by the time P1000 been running for a year.
Corporate tax at 30% on gross revenues = $1.943 Billion AUD.
CAPEX of P680 + P1000 = $572 million AUD.
Conservative Net profit calculation: $4.892 Billion AUD once P680 + P1000 have been ramped and operational for a full year. This calculation excludes POSCO + CALIX revenues and expenses. (For the people forever asking about dividends): 20c per share for 3 Billion shares = $600 Million AUD. Therefore company still pockets over $4 Billion AUD for 12 months. If P1000 is constructed late 2024, ramp takes 12 months, then 12 full months of production would be looking at apx late 2026.
Current Market Capital (before open 25/05/22): $8.63 Billion AUD. It's going to be a very interesting few years ahead for this company. I for one can't wait till we get a FID on P680 this quarter (which should give us more solid capex figures), whilst P1000 FID is expected in December quarter of this year. The quicker we can ramp these projects the more profitable we will be. I think what I've determined in the above is that the expected costs of these projects are almost inconsequential as the payback period's of the CAPEX is almost non-existent. Therefore (as a shareholder) I wouldn't mind PLS paying more for these projects if it results in them coming online quicker.
POSCO and CALIX revenues will simply be the cherries on top of this cash printing press.
(20min delay)