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Hambro tips ‘exciting’ commodity boom this year

Mining investment titan Evy Hambro says the second half of this year could be a “pretty exciting time” for commodity markets if China pushes hard to meet its official economic growth targets (reports The Australian Financial Review).

2nd June 2022

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Beijing’s goal of achieving about 5.5 per cent economic growth this year looks increasingly difficult to achieve after industrial activity was deliberately curbed before February’s Winter Olympic Games, which was exacerbated by strict lockdowns over the past two months to slow the spread of COVID-19.
Retail sales and industrial data plunged in April, sparking Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to reportedly tell government officials on May 25 that they must redouble efforts to avoid an economic contraction in the three months to June 30.
The Chinese government has launched numerous measures over the past fortnight to support and stimulate the economy, including cutting interest rates on new home loans and reducing taxes on businesses and certain car purchases.
Lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing also look set to be progressively eased from as early as this week, raising hopes the worst of the economic slowdown was behind China.
Mr Hambro’s role as BlackRock’s “global head of thematic and sector investing” includes oversight of mining and commodity funds worth more than $20 billion which have significant exposure to Chinese demand for the raw materials produced by companies such as BHP and Rio Tinto.
Mr Hambro said China had traditionally delivered on its stated goals, and commodity demand would be extremely strong over the next seven months if Beijing got anywhere near this year’s economic growth forecast.
“At some point, China’s COVID numbers are going to decrease and for China to get even close to its growth estimates, then there has to be a hell of a ramp up in activity in the second half of 2022,” he told The Australian Financial Review.
“People need to be ready for what could be a pretty exciting time if that kind of engine kicks back into life.
“China has a fantastic track record of being able to restart activity as and when the conditions are right, so I have quite a lot of confidence that we will see a demand pull for commodities in the second half of the year if the COVID numbers start to decline.”
A recent survey of economists by Bloomberg predicted that Chinese economic growth would be 4.5 per cent this year, not 5.5 per cent.
Even though lockdowns have curbed demand for steel in China, mills have continued to make it at rapid rates and created a glut that has put downward pressure on prices.
While Chinese demand for iron ore and coking coal to make steel remains strong, prices for both commodities have softened over the past month as lower steel prices have reduced Chinese mills’ ability to pay high prices for raw materials.
Global supply of commodities such as copper, iron ore, coal and lithium remains weak on the back of labour shortages and supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and war in Ukraine.
While prices for commodities such as aluminium, nickel, copper and coking coal have eased on the back of Chinese lockdowns, prices for most commodities remain at historically high levels.
Mr Hambro said the notion that Chinese demand would rebound later this year could reignite commodity prices.