It seems to me, the current market cap is already assuming that GS is right, i.e., spod price drops to $800 in 2024 and stay there.
If spod price drops to $2800 this year, and $1100 next year according to master GS, then at the end of FY2024 we should have earned AUD 2b in cash. Then, going foreward from 2024, with 1,000k production and a price of $800, we could earn AUD 400m annually. Consider the contribution of POSCO and Calix projects, a AUD 6b market cap is still cheap. Also remember, at this point we are still going to expand capacity or to downstream.
But a long-term $800 spod price is not possible. The overall cost of lithium from battery scrap and lepidolite and many other new sources is much higher than that.
With current valuation, there are only upside risks.
Is there anything I am missing?
AIMHO
It seems to me, the current market cap is already assuming that...
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Last
$4.18 |
Change
0.120(2.96%) |
Mkt cap ! $12.58B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $4.13 | $4.20 | $4.11 | $86.61M | 20.81M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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| 11 | 1408666 | $4.18 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $4.19 | 165878 | 22 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 03/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$4.18 |
Change
0.120 ( 3.20 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $4.12 | $4.20 | $4.12 | 4580071 | ||
| Last updated 15.59pm 03/05/2024 ? | |||||
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