Good News & Bad News, page-12706

The company may well be producing 1Mtpa of concentrate, within 2 years. That is what they have suggested. (very bottom)

PLS has a vast resource yet to mine, over the next 25 years.

The way they get to 1Mtpa has been explained before by the company - and  most likely will be in place sooner, than some companies with high profile........but effectively, what still are greenfield sites - in countries with much higher risk premium, than Australia. Time/risk discounted values are attributed to future earnings for these other companies - as an aside, what value has been built into the PLS ramp up ? zip I suggest.

To some extent - that June qr, put some "runs of the board" so to speak, for PLS. .............$590m free cash on June Quarter  shipments of 127-132,000/dmt which is A$ 4,500 ton profit (includes royalties, but not tax obviously).

So bearing in mind what the company has just achieved in June qr - maybe my calculations are reasonable. What is wrong with suggesting 1Mtpa @ A$6,000 pt ? (we know full well, that prices lag and moving from june qr A$4,500 pt to A$ 6,000 is factual/ reasonable)

So 1 Mtpa @ A$ 6,000pt (averaged out across their product range) equates to A$4,200 billion NPAT. PLS Resources is just the company, made for a bit of a higher PE multiple.... but lets just put them on a PE of 10.

That comes to a cap of A$42 b or SP of $15. (It can go higher in reality, and soonish  2 years- I think - with already from the company, some hint at production in excess of that 1Mtpa. )

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Just one last thing - I think with shipping scheduling going to plan, this qr - they do 175,000 tons and at that A$6,000 pt free cash, pre tax - that comes to the elusive $1b profit in this quarter. So will have to wait and see. With a range of covid issues early in the quarter and their 2nd mill yet to ramp up...."The Pilgangoora Operation is set to achieve a significant increase in spodumene concentrate production for the June Quarter of 123-127,000dmt (March Quarter 81,431dmt)" so : -

Therefore I think  - with that 40,000 tons, already shipped  - I think 175k tons in this 3 months is game on.....A$1 b.

Exciting times with thiS stock.

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CORPORATE REPORT PLS

Future Expansion Opportunities ‐ Potential for future incremental expansions of the Pilgan Plant subject to prevailing market conditions, completion of studies and final investment decision of the Board (FID):
 P680 Project, +100,000tpa incremental brownfields expansion to Pilgan plant
 P1000 Project, +320,000tpa project, increasing aggregate nameplate capacity of Pilgan to ~780-800,000tpa

- Aimed at achieving a combined nameplate processing capacity supporting production of +1 Mtpa spodumene concentrate with the potential for production of “mid stream” value-added product