"One simulation estimates that a 10% uptake of EVs with...

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19/08/22

14:25

Post #: 63213762
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Originally posted by Pete2019: ↑

Looks like if you want to drive a heavier vehicle, then you will have to pay even more.
So this will entice and in some cases force people to either buy lighter vehicles or switch to EVs.
At best this is putting the horse before the cart. At worst adding fuel to the fire. Make no mistake that I'm not against EVs, but the government can't even sort out the electricity crisis on the east coast and then want to entice more electrical power consumption.
Has anyone done a calculation to see how much more electricity Australia need to produce to power all these EVs?
One simulation estimates that a 10% uptake of EVs with uncontrolled (any time/peak) charging could start to cause electrical network failures. In a controlled charging scenario it is estimated that 80% EV uptake can be supported. (If this is even accurate I would not be able to tell, but logically there has to be some impact on electricity demand).
Something may have to give if this is accurate. In the current energy situation the world is in, the forcast EV uptake just is not going to be possible. We should start to see these problems surface in about 2-3 years in my view.
Nobody will do anything prior to this turning into a disaster: Networks down and people unable to charge their EVs.
My view is the only solution is for the government (unfortunately) to take charge and nationalise the electrical grid and generation capacity so that central planning can be done and rolled out properly. This is not going to work just left to private enterprises which will just add hoc add to supply when it suits them.
The government taking charge and actually doing something may of course take decades to implement.
The same situation will likely play out in almost all other countries. Europe has an energy crises, India has blackouts, same in China, and the list goes on.
So though I believe EVs will now become highly fashionable with demand exceeding forecasts, it will not be without serious problems in the near future(less than 5 years).
Maybe some can get around this problem by installing solar with a battery. Maybe this is the only way when we can't buy petrol cars anymore. Maybe that adds to even more lithium demand.

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"One simulation estimates that a 10% uptake of EVs with uncontrolled (any time/peak) charging could start to cause electrical network failures."

Hi@Pete2019, just wanted to know by who's simulation
Is there any articles on this?

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