Good News & Bad News, page-18543

While new conversion capacity is constantly coming online in China, I wish there was a whole lot more coming online elsewhere, i.e. in the EU and US, thus less reliant on China, smoothing out the seasonal ebbs and flows. History tells us that EV production tappers off in the 1st quarter of each calendar year, then grows momentum quarter on quarter throughout rest of calendar year. However, the elephant in the room right now, is the fact that China's subsidy regime finishes on 31/12/2022, noting Chinese current EV adoption rates are already above 20%, achieved 3 years ahead of their last 5 year plan which targeted said 20% for 2025 calendar year.

China's economy has been bashed around for the past 18 months from high commodity prices. It will be interesting how battery metal prices react to the above in Q1 23, hence my wish for a more diversified downstream actors. I know its an alternative view, but IMO worth keeping tabs on.