Hi All, Back on that bulls**t, basically repeating the same...

Hi All,

Back on that bulls**t, basically repeating the same analysis as always, recapping what I'm excited about for your leisure... Lets go:

Cash

1. We have $1.3B in the bank with 3x quarters of earnings to go
2. Q2 should be about the same with more BMX's propping the price (lets say ~$800M)
3. Q3 and Q4 with renewed contract pricing should easily have us over $1B per quarter (so lets say ~$2B in total)
4. With the Gov Grant, PLS only has to fork out ~50M for P680 and crusher upgrades (crusher upgrade is to p1000 specs)
5. FY23 then equates to ~$4B in the bank

Dividend

1. 20% - 30% of free cashflow allocation to dividends confirmed
2. Base case is 20% of $4B = $800M ($800M / 3B shares = $0.26 per share
3. Optimist case is 30% of $4B = $1.2B ($1.2B / 3B shares = $0.40 per share

Stronger for Longer

1. Pricing is still going up - most recent BMX sold for SC6% equivalent of $8,000/t USD
2. The more the dips**t associate analysts at your JP Morgan's of the world keep shouting about an oversupply, the more shares they are wanting to scoop up at a discount.
3. Also, please remember that commodity prices don't shift to the down trend until the exact day the oversupply hits the market. And this needs to be battery grade - which is something that existing, very experienced lithium miners the WA struggle to do right now (I don't want to throw shade, but if you're wondering who I'm talking about, they have a similar market cap to PLS). I'll take the overs on that being 5+ years from now.
4. Contract pricing will go up in the 2nd half of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if that number was greater than $6,000/t USD

P680, POSCO, P1000, CALIX

1. P680 coming online very soon. This will add another ~100kt of SC6% equivalent to the sales. Additional stock isn't contracted, so pricing will be at a premium on BMX
2. I've priced in POSCO into my estimates because (1) The CXO's, LTR's, LKE's of the world have their future production and potential priced in to their SP, so why shouldn't PLS. At current pricing this will add another $500M per annum profit as a very nice safety net.
3. P1000 - when will the market remember PLS has the biggest, lowest cost hard rock resource in the best global jurisdiction? We're talking 1Mtpa here. We're talking like $15.00 SP at $5,000 USD per ton... This probably is lost on the market with all the new shiny 100ktpa potential resources popping up on the asx.
4. CALIX - Hearing quotes come out of the lithium twitter saying most aussie lithium mine executives believe that mid-stream products are the future for Australia... Looks like PLS are years ahead. First mover advantage is why Tesla is so massive, so I wonder how this bodes for PLS and CALIX?

Charts

1. A few more weeks, and we will have bottomed on the weekly Stochastic RSI, we're already in oversold territory
2. Monthly RSI is still only at half mast, so I'm expecting a nice long sustainable run to come after this sideways chop.
3. It feels like this next wave will actually put us closer to actual value... which IMO, right now at 580tpa of SC6% equivalent (so ~625tpa SC5.5% equivalent) is $8.50 - $11.00 depending on volume and average price.

Cash... Again

1. Theres a lot of money in the bank, and its been said that PLS will explore more downstream opportunities.
2. This is purely speculation, but you don't hear about mergers or acquisitions until they are formalized. There are some nice resources coming to the ASX soon in favorable non-Australian jurisdictions
3. What happens at the end of FY24 when PLS has almost $10B in free cashflow? 20%-30% of $10B is $0.66 -$1.00 dividends. I dont know about you but im holding my shares very tightly.

Anyway, see below for the pretty pictures.

Lastly, DYOR, drink more water, go for a walk, and please take care of yourselves!

Cheers - Woly