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MarketsLithiumGoldman’s bearish lithium price call stuns marketTom RichardsonMarkets reporter and commentatorDec 12, 2022 – 4.29pmSaveShareAustralia’s $60 billion lithium sector faces a whipsaw 2023 as brokers jostle over the valuation of the sharemarket’s hottest growth stocks, deploying a wide range of commodity price forecasts with mixed results.Last week, Goldman Sachs led the bears by forecasting the lithium carbonate price to fall to $US53,300 a tonne in 2023 before cratering to $US11,000 a tonne in 2024 as more supply comes to market. By way of comparison, consensus lithium price targets for 2024 are nearly triple Goldman’s forecasts at $US29,063, according to Morgan Stanley.Greenbushes lithium mine in Western Australia. Lithium is now the third biggest contributor to mineral sales behind iron ore and gold. The lithium bulls are led by Macquarie Research, which calls for prices to reach an average $US62,586 a tonne in financial 2023 and remain steady around $US72,500 a tonne until financial 2026 on a supply deficit.The schism between broking powerhouses Goldman and Macquarie is partly due to difficulty forecasting supply and demand in a fast-moving market as public and private stakeholders lift investment in battery supply chains to meet decarbonisation targets.“Despite near-term price volatility, we believe buoyant lithium prices present potential for valuation upside to all our lithium names,” Macquarie told investors on November 16.RELATED QUOTESIGOIndependence Group$14.640 -2.66%Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Dec 227.50012.50017.500LTRLiontown Resources$1.735 -2.80%Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Dec 220.8001.6002.400
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