A little weekend rambling if you don't mind.In order for the GS...

A little weekend rambling if you don't mind.
In order for the GS lithium projections to come to
pass, you have to make a number of basic assumptions.

First you have to assume that the ceo's of the major Australian
miners have totally forgotten and forgiven the Chinese customers
who walked away from their obligations back in the 2019 timeframe.
Second you have to assume that even if they have not forgotten, they are
toothless to do anything about it. Third you have to assume these managers
are dumb enough to simply stand by and let the price drop from $8,000 to less
than $2000.

Bear in mind that much of the reliable increases in production are going to come
from the existing miners for the next several years at least. Are all these miners
going to behave the way Altura did back in the day, which was damn the torpedoes
and keep selling into an already oversupplied market.

These major Australian miners are not a cartel, but they have all of the most
powerful tools a cartel can have, the biggest being the ability to moderate supply
in such a way as to keep price at an acceptable level. Visualize 4 of these ceo's
sitting at a table at a convention having a drink. One says simply...."I'm running my
plant to hard, I'll ruin the equipment if I don't ease off by about 5%"
Nods all around the table.
The Chinese will not like this but they sure as hell will understand it.