Understand that there are certainly experts out there, but there...

Understand that there are certainly experts out there, but there is obviously widespread disagreement on the scale and risk of oncoming supply. When I’m putting money (in this case more) into things I like to sort through all bullish and bearish outlooks and take accountability for understanding the full picture as best as I can.

The outlook for exponential growth in demand certainly has me bullish, but one thing is clear to me is that no one, from Joe through to GS has full transparency on the supply chains.

I remain bullish over the mid to long term, but I feel it is very likely that the bears are going to use any drop off in demand over the next couple months to push a “sky is falling in” style scenario.
That said I believe it would only take a couple weeks of green on the spot pricing for sentiment to quickly turn around. It would be great to fully understand the stockpile situation in China, but that information doesn’t appear to be available to anyone.