Your welcome, yeah, so much info to digest, I will re-watch a few times. A few points to address some of your comments and a bit of a summary of the overall series of interviews,
The size of the Canadian and Brazilian miner resources - Very small, 30 to 40mt, which for comparison is on par with PLS's 39mt resource extension last year, to 309mt.
It will be a slow grind for the Canada plays, most are still in drill mode, and as mentioned in the interviews, the 5 year permitting challenge, even if the later is cut in half. Best case, might see 600kt of spod (83kt LCE) by 2026, capacity similar to combined PLS P680 & P1000 expansion plans over same time period. NA will need ~650kt LCE by end 2025 just for EV consumption, thus IMO import dependant for rest of decade.
By end of this year, 46% (315kt) of PLS spod production will be heading to South Korea, and 16% (~100kt) will be available to sell on spot (BMX), which in 2024 we could see some NA & EU customers fighting for those spod units. But yes, supplying China, South Korea and broader Asia seems to be the safe bet for the medium term, at least. Though a second integrated hydroxide plant in NA could change all of that, using said spare spod and P1000 additional capacity as feedstock.
The dude from GM in the final interview said they were all good for lithium through 2025, but quickly moved on to nickel supply agreements, sort of fobbing off lithium supply question. While its good to see OEM's move in the right direction, implement plans, etc. TBH, they have NFI what's coming wrt securing supply of Li units, noting they need to factor in the thirst of the EU and broader Asia for the same available Li units, and it will take longer than as planned.
Consensus from credible sources say we entered 2023 with a 40 to 60kt LCE deficit, and conservative demand growth estimates range from 200kt to 250kt LCE. While the demand growth numbers are much harder to forecast at this early point in the year, expected new incremental supply is quite visible, its known, which might fill 2023 supply gap in 2024, but I cant see that occuring based on demand growth forecasts. Nonetheless, the supply/demand funnymentals will remain tight, thus wont take much for it to tip out of balance, resulting in a continuation of the feeding frenzy.
PLS Price at posting:
$3.96 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)