I dont think anyone truly understands whats going on in the mkt...

I dont think anyone truly understands whats going on in the mkt at the moment.

It doesnt really matter if the rate of growth or growth in itself is positive. They could both be up but it makes little difference if the price is going down. The problem is that price is going down and everyone is having trouble reconciling this.

To dump this down, if we are manufacturing more EVs than the pcp regardless of the rate of growth between periods how is it that the raw materials are in less demand? The only logical answer to this is that substantial supply has come to mkt. In fact supply would have had to almost double in CY23 to reconcile with spot sc6 prices right now, given that spot was hovering around 7.8-8k ~sep22 and is now 4.5-4.8k . We know this hasnt happened, so the question remains; why are prices continuing to fall? - PLS is fielding constant product inquries (ref "phone is on silent") and we are shipping more tonnes than ever and customers are lapping it all up (refer 1HFY23 and recent shipping data). Yet here we are, prices are falling.

In my opinion there is a simple explanation. The short-term to long-term thematic is still in place: more EV production. And more battery production. Growth rates will ebb and flow, its a segment which is still in its infancy. Most professionals in the industry cant even agree on a reasonable range for LT spod. Some say $1500 (even Rod Hooper said it about 12mths ago) some say $3000. Thats not a range thats a nobody knows. In view of all of this, the retreat in price has less to do with demand from the industry and more to do with demand from a handful of players. If only we could see the bmx data; it would show us who was driving the price up. I reckon either;
a) these buyers can no longer compete with the larger battery manufacturers and are there not willing to buy as they had done; or
b) these buyers are the larger battery manufactures and they have forced out smaller players who can no longer compete, hence prices are not being bid up as they used to.
This is the best explanation I can come up with to explain why demand growth is increasing but price is decreasing. Its somewhat of a conundrum in a traditional demand/supply equation.