While I suggest this cycle has over 10 years to run, which will see cycles within the overall cycle, with that out of the way, last cycle (2015 to 2018) there were ~220 mining wannabes, ~7 projects came online by 2018, 2 failed, this cycle if I exclude the lepaedolite projects in China (they can keep that shit for domestic use), I believe we have 5 projects that came online in 21, 22 and 23 (CXO, MIN, Sigma, LAC and LKE) out of 200 odd wannabes. Mining stats suggest a worst outcome, something like 2 in 100 projects get up, into production.
Most of the load/new supply has been delivered by existing producers/incumbents, and I don't believe that will change all that much for at least 5 years, that is why PLS is pushing forward with P1000. FIBO know this, we just need to get through this macro situation, and we are off the races again. EV's are 'growing' at a slower pace atm due to macro, but still eating ICEV breakfast, lunch and dinner, Osbourne Effect is killing ICE with confidence.
Good News & Bad News, page-26904
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