Every government for decades has used extremely conservative commodity price assumptions and for good reason. The Australian economy/budget has a strong reliance on the mining sector - a 20% reduction in the iron price has the potential to smash the government's tax/royalty take and blow the budget.
Conservative estimates provide a buffer for changes in the global economy and black-swan events but also allows for upward revisions like this year's surplus - $4.2b surplus announced at the May budget revised up to $19b based on May figures (exclusive of an additional $2b for social housing).
Don't ever make investment decisions based on government price forecasts - actually ignore them totally!!
Every government for decades has used extremely conservative...
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