My reply was perhaps a tad bit skinny, yes demand is growing y-o-y, especially the downstream demand build out in the US, EU, Indo and India, which one could describe as super cycle, a long term period where supply/demand balances fluctuate in and out of deficits and surpluses, but generally in deficit over the period.
However, US, EU, etc is not ready to receive feedstock into chem conversion facilities, they are either under construction or still in the planning phase. The whole thing is a bit of a conundrum, meaning those in the planning phase are still in the planning phase due to lack of available feedstock, as most of current feedstock is shipped to China "under offtake agreements".
China knows some of their current feedstock will be diverted to other destinations, i.e. US and EU in the coming few years, offtake agreements for those other destinations have and continue to be inked, but delivery of product does not come into force today, therefore it appears that China's ramp up of lepaedolite production is well planned and timed "for them", shoring up its existing and massive battery supply chain for the reasons stated above, and unfortunately that supply is messing with the short term S/D balance, putting downward pressure on lithium prices followed by lithium miner valuations, commodities 101.
I've said this a few times on these threads, there are cycles within super cycles, and there's over 2twh's of downstream battery demand planning to come on line in the US and EU, but once again, they are not ready yet, so in the meantime China has all the leverage to screw pricing for the next little while. Per BMI, the lithium ion battery arm race continues, but at least PLS had the foresight to diversify customer destinations back in the day (POSCO/PLS JV), and will continue to do so under the new partnering process currently under way, noting almost 50% of PLS spod production is heading to SK by year end, and as said, further diversification to come.
This is just my read on the state of play, happy to be corrected, don't be shy, its only MO, not advice, please DYOR.
(20min delay)