Good News & Bad News, page-35603

I just worked off the market cap per illustration. This includes the whole business. The hydroxide plant may or may not be running properly in 2025. At the moment there is little margin in being a converter. I think less than USD4000/t. Initially it will produce 25 000 hydroxide and up to 100 000t in 2028.
So as a whole it would currently produce a profit of not much compared to the rest of PLS, but it will provide some balance if converter margins expand again. 18% or 30% of that profit would be even less.
Not sure about the other parts you are referring to. I think. The Calix JV is years away from being in commercial production. Currently working on the pilot plant. That will produce 3000t per annum. Estimated ramp up to steady state production is pencilled in for March 2026. That may or may not work straight away.
This probably has more potential than the hydroxide plant investment, but may take another 10 years to fully commercialise. 3 years to get the pilot plant up. Run that and fine tune for about a year, then scale up and try again. This could be another 3+ years. So 7-10 years is an optimistic expectation for this to be commercialised. Only afyer that can it be licensed to others. So this is a very long term prospect in my view, but can be a big money spinner when eventually commercialised.
So all up almost all of PLS's money will be made from the mine for the next decade unless they buy another business or expand.
The mine can be expanded further. That is the easiest expansion option. Maybe P2000 eventually if the demand is there.
Greenbushes is expanding to 2 500 000t SC for example(maybe they will slow that, but that was the plan not too long ago).
To me all this means that the share price will just about only be driven by the SC price in the next 3 years.

So for a $20 share price we are going to need SC pricing of around USD18 000 or someone to make a wild takeover offer while the SC price is a lot higher than it is now.