Good News & Bad News, page-36326

Interested in what the thoughts are in lithium balance from HC posters rather than so called banker experts.
Below is the chart of China NEV sales to NOV. The Nov estimate is 940K. December usually is slightly higher than NOV in previous years so lets say Dec sales is 950K.


Now with these increase in sales I was wondering if there could be other catalysts that could impact demand.
1) Demand in 2024 could be boosted in USA with the $7500 credit available at POS. Might mean some purchases are currently being delayed until 2024.
2) Demand for Tesla was subdued due to waiting for model 3 updates. Should have higher Tesla sales. Not 100% sure about model Y model change but believe it was minor. Cybertruck will sell as much as they can make in US. Legacy US OEM's pullback will not have material impact on NEV sales in 2024.
3) No change in China subsidies in 2024 than what we saw in 2023 so do not expect same drop in volumes as in 2023.
4) China exports have picked up in 2023H2 so expect more ROW sales due to this in 2024 vs 2023. The NEV sales growth for 2024 for ROW could be huge.
5) Battery storage is increasing faster.

Supply:
The drop in prices to current levels must have an impact on the marginal lithium suppliers. Certainly limited DSO from Africa at current prices.
The futures in January needs to be delivered with actual lithium. This could be a potential drawdown of inventory levels?
Could some of the major lithium producers start to build lithium inventories on their side until prices recover? IGO said in last Qtly they will not be selling all produced lithium I believe.

Anyways just some of my limited thoughts on the subject. Hoping for a turnaround in lithium share prices as it has been a brutal 6 months for my portfolio.