Good News & Bad News, page-36328

Do not think I have the knowledge to debate with you. I agree with all you say but I believe that a turnaround is sooner than what people are told to believe.
My replies
1. There is excess supply in the short run.
Not sure if the fall in spot prices are due to manipulation but will leave that at that. The drop in prices is also somewhat positive as it made a lot of marginal EV manufacturers viable and reduced EV prices to be nearly on par with ICE vehicles which will create a lot more sales.
2. Demand has not continued to grow at the same rate. Given more supply has come online this has created a glut.
Agree with this up to now. However going forward. Demand was subdued in part due to Tesla model 3 upgrade and waiting potentially for IRA $7500 discount on showroom floor. New models that came in 2023H2 like Cybertruck and all models from China Automotive show will increase sales and eat more away from ICE. All reports I have read is that EV sales are in line with expected sales for 2023. Supply from Africa and marginal China supply will surely be turned off at these prices so that burst of supply is probably not going to be there from now on.
3. As the price gets lower marginal suppliers get turned off.
This this must be happening now at these price levels.
4. Future demand will no doubt continue to grow, but will it continue to outpace supply growth? (Nobody really knows, but best guess is yes)

This is my argument. Going forward supply from Africa (DSO) and marginal China producers and possible delay from large spodumene producers must limit supply growth. Demand growth could surprise on higher side due to lower EV prices, more China exports to ROW, new exciting models.
5. As battery prices come down, EV projects become more economic and we should see more products come to market.

Agree and eat away more of ICE sales. It will just become a no brainer to buy an EV vs ICE over time.