Im no mining guy but can do basic maths. I just dont know why my numbers are so far off the outcome. Happy to be told whats wrong so here's my logic.
PLS generated 4.1B from 607KT in FY23 = $6,750/T
Chart from their deck shows the market price across FY23 was above that average but nontheless supports the outcome.
If FY24 delivers the price as per the chart and the output is 680Kt then the revenue number will be $1.2B (680kt x $1750 = 1.19B)
If the opex is similar at $876M then the EBIT for FY24 is closer to $313M than $3.3B in FY23.
If that trend contnues at an average price per ton of $1600 then inlcuding the uptick in tons in FY25 and deducting tax, 5 year NPV of the NPAT is $1B depending on your view of a discount rate vs. a MC net of cash of $8B
What am I imssing other than the price going back up to $8K a ton?
Good News & Bad News, page-37332
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Last
$2.88 |
Change
-0.040(1.37%) |
Mkt cap ! $8.673B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $2.93 | $2.96 | $2.88 | $50.87M | 17.45M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 127610 | $2.88 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $2.90 | 103550 | 8 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 11/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| PLS (ASX) Chart |