I believe SF posted the contracts expiring this year in a post a few weeks back. I copied these from a tweet so haven’t verified.
- 70ktpa (chengxin) expires jun 30
- 80ktpa (general) expires dec 31
- 115ktpa (yibin) expires dec 31
- 20ktpa (great wall) expires dec 31
285kt in total.
So for CY2024 assuming Chengxin is extended, there is 595kt allocated to Chinese customers.
Unknown how much Posco JV will require of the 315kt, as the ramp up timeframe to 100% is not an exact science for retail followers.
So, assuming come 2025, Posco JV is at 50% capacity and Chinese customers continue with allocations, 595 + 157.5 = 752.5
Something will change with contracts as P1000 won’t be online. Maybe the Ganfeng back to 100kt.
Just musings.
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