MasterStrategistYes,MS you've made it clear you are not a fan of...

MasterStrategist

Yes,MS you've made it clear you are not a fan of forecasts, I respect that.

However, there is multiple data points out there, information from the recentpast to inform the near term future and as the weeks roll on, if you lookhard enough, you often get confirmation of the trend, good or bad.

As an example, for years I've been banging on about China's ambitions todominate road transport sales, they have a plan, they play the long gameand I think last year's performance was an early confirmation, so I'mnot surprised. However, they ain't going to stop there, last year was justa test run, an advertisement for what's to come.

Theship in the picture below is a ro-ro ship, a large cargoship designed to carry cars, things with wheels.



In 2023China ordered sixty car carriers, and another sixty are to be added in 2024.These ships can carry up to 8,000 cars. Starting in 2025(11 months from now), when all are fully operational, we will see a hugeexpansion of Chinese car exports, ah, confirmation, no surprise, I new theywould do it, it was just a matter of when.

Using the above data point, coupled with a year long mid and downstreaminventory drawdown to inform the near term future, surprisingly, I wont besurprised if supply chain demand is more evenly distributed going forward,finally pulling on the upstream actors in the next littlewhile.