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Cuixot

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03/02/24

15:27

Post #: 72220815
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Originally posted by Cuixot: ↑

Clearly the data is been shown to tell a story, bears focusing on Dec to Jan drop to highlight that EV demand is drying out... when the drop is occuring every year...

Bull's case demand is 30% higher than Jan's last year

We are in the early days of adoption and at the moment just BYD and Tesla being profitable on EVs production...we need more OEMs to become profitable and low price EVs to cover the full market range is vital; hopefully from Western countries and then the exponential growth is warranted.

Renault is having ready its R5 20,000€ EV , Citroen its C3 EV also around 20-25k€... both for 2025-2026...

On the other hand BESS is just growing bigger and bigger by the minute....
Most do not realize that at the end of the day , most, if not every fast charger will need to be baked up by a BESS entirely or partially....to provide the fast charge without a massive grid upgrade.
The limiting factor is not only the EV' battery max charging rate but the grid infrastructure to provide this boost simultaneously to many vehicles (i.e. for charging a typical EV battery of 60kWh in 5 minutes you need around 800kW output, 10 min 400kW and 20 min 200kW etc)

Imagine now a highway EV servo, with 10 chargers you would need 4-8MW output to keep charging vehicles at a pace.

Similar to petrol stations where we have an aggregated capacity of fuel in australia equivalent to around 600km per each of
the 15,000,000 registered light vehicles. At a 15kwh/km that would be equivalent to 1.3TWh, this is just an order of magnitude as the EV world works very different:

1)EVs won't fill the tank full if you can charge at home.
2) EV servos can produce a part of their fuel with PV-Wind
3) EV servos are replenished constantly by the grid , as the don't rely on tankers.
4) EV servos can also produce revenue by grid energy arbitrage , as they can be a controllable load, or even a generator to sell energy when prices are crazy high.

Any battery improvement will make things more attractive, and comercial EV adoption, aircraft battery adoption....

Just thinking load, as analyst don't see any further....

A funny fact to finish my musings, the first vehicle to reach 100kmh on land was an EV and it was 125 years ago.

https://www.drive.com.au/caradvice/the-story-of-first-car-in-history-to-hit-100km-h-and-it-was-electric/

Have a nice weekend.

Miquel

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PLS Price at posting: $3.55 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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