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Thanks, though so much to digest. I agree southeast Asia, rest...

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24/04/24

07:50

Post #: 73487502
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Originally posted by Giobria: ↑

Long rant. Skip if it bores you - just don't complain. I want to get a few things off my chest.

Isn't it sad. For decades USA was at the forefront of technological adoption, but for EVs it is below the ROW, and far behind China (except Tesla - more on that below)

Since early last century, with the discovery of oil in Texas, the americans have been married to ICEs. Big powerful cars. Huge ludicrous and useless fins. Too big to sell to most of the rest of the world which generally has adopted more fuel efficient and smaller cars, to fit in their smaller and higher density towns.

Maybe one reason is that they have cheaper fuel than Europe. Australia is not far behind USA, and it too is going for ever bigger cars.

A few years ago I drove a few thousand kms in California and Nevada. I found it easy - the roads are wide, and plenty of room when parking. Here in oz it is becoming more difficult to park a car safely in a shopping centre - the risk is banging doors with the neighbour - as cars are getting bigger - more SUVs and 4 door utes is the trend now. So I can understand why the americans have not worried too much about efficiency or size (the centre of technology in USA, California, is really the primary state driving for improvements).

Australian fuel is cheap too compared with the rest of the world. When will this infatuation with big noisy smelling engines end? Security of supply has been the cause of problems in the middle east and Africa. Maybe the current problems will cause the oil price to rise - so we can expect our petrol price to go up. But the USA is largely not affected because of their recent ability to extract from shale. It is a pity, because they, and we, are the first to complain when fuel prices rise, but we are not addressing the problem - we should be using more fuel efficient cars.

What does this mean for us at PLS? I think the uptake of EVs will increase rapidly because of fuel cost, and because EVs provide a better driving experience. Not so much for Australia and even less for USA. But China is racing full steam ahead - as the population is moving quickly out of poverty, a big factor is that China has about 200 cars per 1000 people, whereas USA has over 800 and the rest of the western world has over 600. This means more people will be buying their first car in China than anywhere else, and most are going EV because of their overall lifetime cost. And India and south east asia are about to ramp up too.

So demand from China and Europe, and in a few years from the rest of Asia, is about to explode.

But it looks like USA and to a lesser extent Australia will move into EVs only with lots of kicking and screaming because of their long standing love affair with the fumes and noise from oversized petrol cars, and decades of battles between Holden and Ford at Mt Panorama.

Tesla is the bright beacon of light in the world of EVs. True - they don't have the refinement and class of the established automakers - some people complained the body panels do not line up well - but they make it up in spades with their technology. My son just returned from a trip to California. He said he went in several taxis, mostly Tesla. But he said the driver assist features were great - far superior than anything he had seen in Mercs, BMWs or Lexus. Of course this has nothing to do with the type of engine - instead it shows how traditional auto makers have stagnated with their designs whereas Tesla took a whole new approach with every aspect of the car. That is why the traditional automakers are making losses with their EVs and cutting production. They are years behind designing an EV from the ground up.

So Tesla is standing alone In USA (plus a few small guys like Rivian) to hold the lead in technological primacy in the world of motor cars. The advantage USA had for decades with cheap petrol is no longer relevant because BEVs will soon be cheaper, and they already are in China as evidenced by their sales volumes. And worse still is the fact that when there is a lot of activity in a new industry many collateral side benefits and innovations pop up, like lasers, colour TV etc did with the space program. But USA will likely miss out because China will do it first.

All because of their love of petrol fumes (how popular is drag racing and indianapolis-style racing outside USA?).

However, in spite of all this, I think the ROW (outside USA and Oz) will ramp up quickly with adoption of EVs, and the rest of us will catch up a few years later when we see how far behind we are falling.

Which reminds me. When I got my driver's licence in the 60s I had to demonstrate that I could do the archaic stop and turn signals with my hand, outside the window, in winter, even though I had a European car fitted with indicators and brake lights. A few years later when I bough my first car, Japanese, it had a radio as standard - an extra on the standard Ozzie junk cars which the government supported for many decades at the expense of every australian taxpayer.

So. Wake up Australia and USA. EVs and Lithium are the biggest revolution happening right now. They will boost the economy big time and will create a miriad ancillary innovations and opportunities. Don't miss out and fall behind.

I don't trust the supply and demand figures from the experts, nor the isolated cases put forward by some people as representative of the whole industry when instead they are merely blips. Nor do I worry about the occasional incidents, explosions, shut downs, corporate failures, etc as this is a new industry and mistakes are made but in time we learn. How many people died before the widespread usage of seat belts? Not enough to ban cars!!!

What I see is the consistent (seasonally adjusted) rise in adoption of EVs. New technologies are coming, and there is equivocation about PHEVs, but even there the usage of lithium is increasing, and batteries are getting bigger.

Unless the world blows up we will get our reward. In a decade or so electricity will be almost free, like water. Only the aficionados will stick with petrol (just like those who prefer vinyl to mp3s).

What, me worry?
.

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Thanks, though so much to digest.

I agree southeast Asia, rest of Asia will see strong growth from here on in, checks out, given the population in the region. I reckon we’ll see 2 vehicle homes in India, a small Tuk Tuk for old mate to drive to and from work and a SUV for the misses to drop the kids off at school and weekend camping trips for family, solar panels, and all. Note, both of the vehicles below are electric, though, interesting that old mate’s car is advertised as a 4 to 5 adult passenger vehicle, if so, I’d be riding shot gun.

As for Oz, I think its important to consider we have a history of mass adoption of new tech, so I wouldn’t worry too much, and giving most of the population are coast huggers, installing charging infra will be easy, though all cars in Oz are imported, and I think China and rest of Asia will ensure we have no choice but to buy an EV, thus Oz taxpayers now have to suck up the $5 bill of taxpayers money being spent to subsidise the poor fossil fuel industry, but don’t get me started there.
For the record, I’ve never driven across the Nullarbor, though will be doing so soon, looking forward to visiting the Murrawijinie Caves, apparently the residential address of some of the visitors here, a share cave if ya like.
Yeah, city hospitals would experience a lot of right arm injuries today, those large SUV’s and skinny residential roads, bloody dangerous.
Is it still not compulsory to wear a seatbelt in the US, I guess y’all buy a gun for protection. In Oz, taxpayers hard earned pay people to collect state government revenue from people not wearing a seatbelt, not wearing a helmet and not picking up your doggy do do when taking your best mate for a walk, got to keep those bloody fossil fuel lobbyists happy, there you go, you got me started. Maybe we should change the gun laws here in Oz to protect the people from the powers to be.

Economiesof scale in the US, yeah it’s interesting that the US have spent the best partof 2 decades planning and implementing a self-sufficient fossil fuel industry,then Biden comes along with the IRA, hence all the loud noise we hearing today. As you say, there’s so many opportunities for the US to retool and produceEV’s at scale, but I believe it will be a the hardest market to flip, smoothly. It will be messy and for example, if I was a US fossil fuel producer, I’d cut all capex for new production, sit back and watchthe price skyrocket and go out with a bang, once again messy.

PLS Price at posting: $3.81 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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