Some reading for a dull Sunday afternoon. In my search for the forecast increase in supply of lithium touted by Goldman Sucks, Citi and others of their ilk, I have found it easier to determine what countries or continents have no or only one operating mine (hardrock or brine). My opinion is that while the Chinese seem to be well positioned, that the Western car manufacturers will be dependent on China for lithium products for several years.
Canada has North American Lithium, which is attempting to increase production from 130mtpa to 200mtpa while at the same time hoping for a substantial increase in the price of spodumene to stay afloat.Sinometal in Manitoba last year produced a mere 2000 tonnes at its rare earth mine in Manitobahttps://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/mining-data-statistics-and-analysis/minerals-metals-facts/lithium-facts/24009 ExtractThe North American Lithium mine near Val-d’Or, Quebec (formerly the Quebec Lithium mine) reached commercial production in early 2018 and shipped spodumene concentrate to refineries in China for processing into lithium carbonate. As prices of lithium products and spodumene concentrate fell sharply later that year, North American Lithium suspended production in 2019 and sought bankruptcy protection. It was acquired by Sayona Quebec in 2021 in a joint venture between Sayona Mining (Australia) and Piedmont Lithium (United States). The mine started limited production of lithium concentrate in March 2023, with a full commercial production targeted for Q3 2023. The new owners also plan to build a lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate refinery.
The USA has one brine mine https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/lithium-mining-in-the-united-states Extract: Although lithium can be found all over the United States, there is only one operating mine in the country: the Albemarle Silver Peak Mine in Nevada. This mine uses the brine extraction method to pull lithium deposits from under the earth's surface. The brine is usually found below the surface of dry lake beds and typically in deserts.
In South America, the governments of Chile and Argentina (big brine producers) are negotiating for a bigger share in these companies. In Chile, the government wants 50% now and 75% in about another 5 years. A good read on China’s ambitions can be found at https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/the-china-west-lithium-tango-in-south-america/ Brazil seems more stable, and Sigma Lithium seems set for expansionhttps://sigmalithiumresources.com/ Extract: Ana Cabral, Co-Chairperson and CEO said: “During 2024, Sigma has delivered on several key milestones aimed at doubling industrial capacity by 2025. We made the final investment decision to initiate construction of a second Greentech plant, and we extended operational life to 25 years at Grota do Cirilo by increasing our audited proven and probable mineral reserve by 40%.
Africa: Once called The Dark Continent because it was unexplored and we (westerners) knew so little about it. Can’t say much has changed in regard to lithium mining and their politics. Ganfeng has bought out a mine in Mali with a partly complete production line.This is almost certain to be producing within one or two years with Chinese money and expertise. https://www.mining-technology.com/news/mali-ganfeng-lithium-operatorship/ Extract: Ganfeng Lithium will set up a spodumene plant which will start production by the end of the year, it added.
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