The reason SP down is simple, I bought. I believe the Shorting has nothing to do with supply. The numbers out of Africa is Bogus. An article (find it yourself) stating numbers from Benchmark minerals is getting the attention. It reads, out of Africa 870kt ( LCE) came out in 2023 and 1100kt ((LCE) in 2024... Hold on, it take around 7.5t of spod to make 1t(LCE).
870× 7.5= 6525kt (2023) and 1100× 7.5= 8250kt (2024). BULLDUST. PLS produce 725kt in one year. So, Africa is producing around 10 x PLS volume in a year. They achieve this in only 2 years. BULLDUST.
World wide covid lockdown 2020 and 2021. 2022 was when everything started up. So, Africa, drilled, mapped, and built the mines in only 1 year.( yeh right). they managed to commission the plants and produce 6525kt of spod in 2023, then only managed to ncrease 1725kt (2024). Really ??? Does the world even have enough bulk carriers to china for the volume?? BOGUS. If China is oversupply why is PLS sold out? Every volume increase is spoken for. Spod at US $770/t= $1154 au, $1154- $591( cost june qrt)=$563/t profit.
It would appear its a case of shorts not able to cover, fear/ downramping has gone into overdrive. Australian Super knows it and is buying up.
Only my opinion and back of envelope maths.
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