Yes, a lot of negative dynamic exists - many times I have mentioned two books that describe it well.
In addition, for example, looking at today's trades: there are a huge number of small trades - way below the $500 limit that my broker does not allow me to do. These trades can't be by retail investors because they would be killed by the fees, and they cannot be by large orgs or sophs for the genuine purpose of investing because it would take a huge number of transactions for them to get/sell a decent size parcel. So, what is the purpose of these trades? Each small trade is not an investment per se, but a carefully orchestrated mechanism to cause the SP to change. How should this be called?
Then there is the media and the apologists for the FF companies and the downrampers here that keep on saying that EVs are bad. What is sad is that they have bamboozled a large number of people, especially in US and in the wealthier western countries. And they have convinced the governments to place large tariffs on chinese imports. Initially they might feel good believing that they can contain the chinese powerhouse. Yes initially, but not for long.
For example: how did the Australian tariff work out for saving Holden and Ford and Chrysler? Yes, it did save "them" for 50 or so years - saved 50,000 jobs! In rough figures, at $100,000 per worker that is $5 billion a year of work. But, but, but... every new car sold in Australia cost $10,000 more than it would have without the tariffs, and for 1,000,000 cars a year that is
$10 billion that we paid. So what the tariffs actually did was to allow our manufacturers to maintain the status quo: ie innovate/modernise very slowly and never become efficient.
This is what the west does not understand:
the tariffs will give a giant free kick to the chinese.They are making far more EVs than the west, and their sales are increasing rapidly. With far more manufacturing, and much bigger fleet on the road, they will have far more info and they will improve their technology far quicker than the west will, and will leave the west further and further behind.
The tariffs will remove the need for the west to invest significantly into R&D - and I mean much more than now - since they will be protected. (Mind you - I am not advocating that tariffs are bad - they make sense to protect a new industry, but eventually they should be phased out, say after 5 or 10 years - not 50. Note that Tesla survived quite well without tariffs!)
A good old adage is "follow the money".
Who benefits from convincing people that EVs are bad? Not the car companies, because they will make whatever they can sell.
Its the oil companies. For each new million of EVs sold, the sale of petrol will be reduced by $2-5 billion a year. Forever. In China this year they will put on the road maybe 5 million new EVs. The oil companies must be terrified.
The propaganda against EVs has been:
- range anxiety. Maybe for some people in Australia, but in Europe where there is another town every 5km?
- battery fires: did anybody see what just happened in Thailand to that bus?
- BEV sales are down, BEV sales are down, BEV sales are down, ad nauseam: well, yes, but only in the west. The increase in China more than compensates any temporary reduction in the west.
- hybrids are better: that is debatable - it addresses the range issue, but only by making the car more complex. It was a stop-gap solution, but now?
- EVs are more expensive: that is a temporary thing only, and not in China. Buyers of EVs say that EVs are better cars anyway, and so are prepared to initially pay more. But eventually the fuel cost is far less, maintenance is less frequent (and should be cheaper once more mechanics are trained). Once manufacturing volumes ramp up, and the car manufacturers have paid off their R&D and new manufacturing set up the price should drop. Also, the 80% reduction in Li price - when is that going to flow down to battery prices? (They have not gone down 80%)
One reason for the low EV sales in US (about which I have written before) is that petrol is cheap there. But the current problems in the middle east might change that, and it will be interesting to see if the west's car makers can ramp up manufacturing quickly enough if demand for EVs increases.
(20min delay)