Good News & Bad News, page-508

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss wodgina and greenbushes spodumene capacity or what you refer to as base load projects, not quite sure what that means.

1. Wodgina production capacity is well in excess of their conversion rights at Kemerton.

Given the business man he is, I would not expect CE to sit on his hands if spodumene prices offer a considerable margin. Same applies to Albemarle.
Let's not forget the same guys exported DSO to China while demand was there. I would expect them to do the same with spodumene once prices stabilise above usd600/t.
Wodgina 750ktpa

2. Tianqi and Albemarle have historically tolled spodumene via third party converters and possibly still continue to do so. Once spodumene prices reach a point where independent converters margins are squeezed sufficiently (due to your mentioned lack of supply of spodumene) I expect independents to revert to toll treating arrangements as we have seen in the past.
Greenbushes ~1,200ktpa.

Long way of saying if pricing is supportive, assuming the additional spodumene capacity would remain idle and not make its way downstream is risky.
There is plenty of it and understanding what that means under various pricing scenarios is key.

Aimo