Every man and his crazy goat is jumping on the bandwagon with opinions. As per Rodney Hooper, who is expecting a deficit of 30 to 50kt in 2022, so smooth ramp up equates to 30kt deficit, but short term (i.e. 1 year) at the mid point, 40kt is the likely the number.
However, the talking heads are not factoring in the demand growth and the elephant in the room - who is going to supply lithium chems at required volumes to non-existent, non-Chinese cathode and battery makers. Fantasy world, and as non-Chinese battery factories come on line in the EU and US, who will be supplying the cathodes/anodes to those plants, China will, but only in the form of a Chinese made EV.
I'm glad South Korean battery/chem makers are starting (POSCO the leader) to secure supply, albeit slowly. As I've been banging on about for years, huge downstream dollars at risk on sitting idle from next year, as China wont be too keen to ship materials to help non-Chinese competitors scale up production. So we have the build out of the demand side of the equation happening in the US and EU, but it finishes there.
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