Hi Sunny,Yes, while I do have my own numbers, but I hope you...

Hi Sunny,

Yes, while I do have my own numbers, but I hope you don't mind they are for my personal use. Whilst that may seem as a cop out, as you can see already, things get attacked rather than critique most the time if people feel posts show a positive viewpoint.

Maybe people forget that most who post and contribute are also ordinary shareholders who believe in the LT future of the company. I don't disagree with most of what is posted which is informative and make up my own mind. I think we can handle having differing opinions on our threads so people can add to the overall collective knowledge. Otherwise we are just here to see a single constant positive uptrend and unwarranted bashing of people's opinions.

But to get back to your question you are right to question it, and I should have clarified it in my earlier post. But the main driver behind it is:

- Spot pricing only achieved with BMX sales through Ngungaju product
- Ngungaju production will struggle to reach full ramp up by Jun 22 as previously forecasted
- Therefore shortfall in production will mean BMX sales will contribute less to EBITDA. (And goes without saying Pilgan offtakes don't take the full cream of spot pricing)

I've made my own assumptions as to the shortfall in production but that's always going to be your own judgement call. I guess by your comment you will have a different view then and I have adopted something more conservative. Ultimately, spot can be high but it won't mean a thing if we can't get production up and have not much to sell.

Do I believe we will hit P1000 and work our way up the value chain - well yes, I sure hope so. At the end of the day if i'm wrong and it hits $5 next week, sure I'll be wrong but I'll be more than happy and go back to re-evaluate what happened with my analysis.

Btw, been appreciating your posts on re: pricing and investor stories. Keep it up!