We need to think beyond lithium to meetour net-zero goals
Are electric cars becoming thevictim of their own success?
This week Stuart Crow, chair of lithium producer Lake Resources,highlighted a critical problem on the battery horizon. “There simply isn’t going to beenough lithium on the face of the planet, regardless of who expands and whodelivers, it just won’t be there,” he said.
“The carmakers are startingto sense that maybe the battery makers aren’t going to be able to deliver.”
There has been a global surge in newcar sales of electric vehicles. Globally, plug-in EV registrations were up 99per cent in February, year-on-year. In the UK there were more EVs sold in Marchthan for all of 2019; a 78.7 per cent surge on March 2021, according to SMMT(the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders).
InNorway 86 per cent of all new car sales in March were EVs. Even in lessdeveloped markets, like Australia, sales of electric cars have tripled, albeitfrom a low base. March was the best month ever for EV sales in Australia, nowat 2.5 per cent of the market.
By2030 EVs are expected to hit about half of all new car sales, up from about 8per cent last year. Across Europe, governments are mandating the phasing out ofthe internal combustion engine for personal cars. The UK is set to ban the saleof petrol and diesel cars from 2030.
Thisis great news for the planet, right?
Sure.But everything has knock-on consequences. EVs need batteries and for now thatmeans lithium.
In the 12 months to the beginning of March the price for lithiumcarbonate, a base raw material to make lithium batteries, skyrocketed more than700 per cent, according to Trading Economics.
Lithium prices have hit historical highs with a run-on impactinto batteries prices and supply chain bottlenecks. The geopolitical crisis triggeredby the Russian invasion of Ukraine is adding to the uncertainty.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, at current rates by2030 demand for lithium batteries will outstrip supply by more than five timesthe entire 2021 lithium market.
This has created an unsustainable raw material crunch horizonfor lithium-ion batteries and their applications.
While most consumers will focus on what this means for EVs,mobile phones and laptops, perhaps a more serious impact of these surgingprices will be in the stationary energy storage market.
Without sustainable, safe and affordable energy storage for windand solar farms, the global transition from an economy based on fossil fuels torenewables will be impossible.
Right now, the market is prioritising the allocation of alreadyexpensive and increasingly difficult to obtain lithium into immediateconsumables: your new EV and mobile electronics.
‘It’s no longer a rich man’scar’: Where electric car ownership is surging in Sydney
What does this mean for the energy transition?
Analysts Wood Mackenzie estimate that by 2030 there will be 1 terrawatt-hour of battery energy storage deployed worldwide, a massive hike on today’s capacity. This will require billions of dollars in energy storage infrastructure investment. This is a huge market that lithium-ion batteries alone will simply not be able to supply.
All this energy from wind and solar will need to be storedsomewhere. We will need batteries everywhere to support a renewable anddecentralised energy grid.
If lithium is being squeezed, what else will we use to store thisenormous amount of energy?
It is quite right that lithium is prioritised for EVs,electronic consumables and the emerging electronic aviation industry. Lithiumis a super-light element and, despite lingering safety concerns, ideal forsmall transport and mobile electronics.
But lithium is no longer the only game in town when it comes tostationary energy storage. Other technologies are coming online, whether theyuse sodium, zinc or vanadium. Energy storage systems for wind and solar do notneed to move, so systems based on heavier raw materials can be just as good aslithium, right?
In fact, they can be better.
Alternative energy storage systems can use safer, more abundantand cheaper materials to store renewable energy. And many are far more suitedto long-duration energy storage needed for grid-scale solar and wind power.
For the energy transition to work it comes down to being able tosuccessfully capture energy when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing andstore it for long enough and safely enough to despatch when it is needed.
The market is forcing the pace of the energy transition andlithium on its own will not be able to fill this demand. This will need adiversification in the raw material base for renewable energy stationarystorage systems.
The lithium battery until now has been good enough for our needsin stationary storage. But that time is over. Lithium has its place, but if wewant to power the transition to renewables, industry needs to think beyondlithium if we are to have a serious shot at decarbonising the economy andreaching our net-zero targets.
(20min delay)