I think its important to consider the following points, which...

I think its important to consider the following points, which includes the other side of the equation, i.e. the demand funnymentals,

• Over the next 2 years, new customers will emerge from the EU, US and broader south Asia, as they build out conversion capacity. Maybe a combined 4twh of demand from those regions by 2031.

• At present Chinese midstream actors have ~550kt of LCE expansion in the pipe, and because of the above, will need to exploit African resources, assuming they want to remain top dog in the supply chain. Its also important to understand the dynamics of China domestic needs, in that only ~200 per 1000 people own a car, while in the west its close to 800 per 1000, so internal demand is large, will grow.

• As posted a few days pack, China will source ~20% of its feedstock needs from Africa, and 20% from domestic resources, by 2031. According to BMI, there's 8twh of battery capacity in the pipeline by 2031, and assuming 50% of that planned capacity is from top dog China, where will they source the other 60% (2.16 mill LCE units) of their needs from.

• Wrt Brazil, where is Sigma's capacity heading to, who is converting their spod, I believe its an EU associated/integrated refiner, but cant confirm?

This may help, to get a better handle on the bigger picture, I find it easier to assess/analyse probable demand +/- 20%, then back fill said demand with probable supply, using same tolerances. Hint, the S/D balance is already very tight, it's going to be a very good decade for producers who are able to expand into the above thematic