"In fact the below is already a tad out of date, < $80/kWh is being achieved now thanks to CATL."
The graph posted by sunnyaus was used by Goldman Sachs to predict that EVs and equivalent ICE models will reach price parity by 2025. As sunny points out, in the six months since then, battery costs have fallen substantially more than they projected, so that would put their prediction on target, or perhaps bring it forward, or make it a more robust forecast even if there are other headwinds.
The effect on lithium demand should reach us holders before the cheaper EVs do. I assume parity will arrive in China first. We'll have to wait a bit longer for imports and for right hand drive models. Emissions standards should help a lot. The benchmark I look for is the difference between a Yaris and a Dolphin. In fact a Dolphin is slightly larger than a Yaris, but smaller than a Corolla. They are close enough.
I see a reference to the GS figures taking cost of ownership into account. Yaris vs Dolphin is around $AU9000 difference in drive-away price at the moment IIRC. Striking distance, even for the sticker price and no cost of ownership adjustment. Next year is going to be interesting.
https://switchedon.reneweconomy.com.au/content/plunging-battery-prices-will-deliver-cost-parity-for-evs-by-2025
Good News & Bad News, page-42014
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