I agree, rising battery costs could be a negative for the EV, ESS uptake. However, it's the nickel and cobalt prices that is the concern wrt hydroxide based cathodes, in that lithium prices could rise another 30 to 50% from here without substantially impacting battery costs.
If cathodes markers switch to carbonate based cathodes due to shortage of nickel chems, fortunately, there will still be strong demand for lithium, i.e. the irreplaceable component in the cathode.
Good News & Bad News, page-461
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