I think concern about economic performance domestically and abroad is totally valid at this stage. Before you read anything else please understand I'm not an economist or anything else like that, these are just my comments.
From my perspective, it's important to remember that in a lot of industries the share price is seemingly decoupled from actual performance. Big names like Tesla are trading at huge multiples of their current turnover, and the stock market's performance is seemingly a reflection of the massive amounts of money that has been printed in the last couple of years, not necessarily correlating directly to performance. Without any stats to point to, I believe that resources is one of the markets where this is not so much the case; as many smarter and more experienced people here have pointed out, share price is largely keeping in line with the value of the product.
Compounding this issue is the fact that there is not enough skilled labour here and abroad to support growth for many entities. As an example, someone I know in one of the big accounting firms said they would hire literally hundreds of staff in their cyber division tomorrow if they could find the staff, but they just don't exist. Just look at the PM's announcement about under-18s being allowed to drive forklifts and that says a lot I think.
In November 2021, 4.5m Americans quit their jobs and either exited the job market, or found new positions where the risk to reward balance was more in their favour. When you read the sentiment in subreddits like to/antiwork, I do wonder when the volume of such anecdotal sentiments will translate to real world economic impacts.
Other factors potentially causing poor economic results in the next reporting period and EOFY are the much vaunted 'supply chain issues', the semiconductor shortage, and the 30-year low in consumer confidence. Anecdotally, that same person in the accounting firm said a colleague took his high end Audi to a dealership for its first 10,000km service, and a salesperson offered him more than what he paid for the car brand new. One can only assume that's because the salesperson needed stock to preserve his own job by giving him something to sell, and to have stock on the floor.
I'm not trying to burst anyone's bubble or stress anyone out, and I'm genuinely keen to hear other people's perspectives on the macro environment. If this post cops enough criticism for its inaccuracies I'd be happy to get mods to delete the post. But even if all these factors result in a downturn, and you're just thinking about this now, wouldn't you rather know?
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