BGL 2.82% $1.72 bellevue gold limited

Very solid presentation and great guidance. Highlights from my...

  1. 496 Posts.
    Very solid presentation and great guidance. Highlights from my perspective:-

    - very solid increase in EBITDA margin to 40%. Synergy benefits are really gaining traction. Microequities predicts even higher margins and given performance to date perhaps these are achievable.
    - Oct EBITDA of 850k. Not sensible to extrapolate that out for full year, given seasonality of some of the earnings (i.e. community internet unit down over uni holidays) however shows that the 9 mill EBITDA guidance is perhaps very conservative. BGL has a multi year history of updating guidance so I wouldnt expect FY12 to be any different. Expect an upgrade on release of half year results or perhaps in April/May.
    - I reckon EBITDA will come out between 10 and 10.5 million with EPS for FY12 to come out anywhere between 3.2 to 3.5cps.
    - 33% dividend pay out ratio. Very nice. I would expect divs to be fully franked. Expect a maiden dividend declaration of circa 1cps to be announced in August next year.
    - nice reaction from the market, with SP up strongly converse to the index.
    - Growth rates may slow going foward (from a very high base) and the introduction of dividend policy may show BGL entering a more mature phase however given further room to squeeze margins and given scalability of the business, and also nice general trends in increase in internet data usage etc, I am still expecting say a 15% top line growth will lead to a 30% increase in EPS for FY13. EPS of 4cps+ in FY13 seems very likely (oh and you can chuck in a juicy 1.3cps share dividend as well).
    -Well done to management.
 
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