good news week, page-47

Brett,

No dispute. The question is where between 0 and 75% CVNs SRB rate sits. Big difference.

I think it was CVN which recently said something like 60% at the 20,000 bopd JV level, Hartleys are showing it at just over 50% for 2010 FY at a 23,000 bopd JV level. POE's recent fall appeared to be caused by one of the Canadian analysts coming up with a higher rate (see Stockhouse.com discussion a couple of weeks back).

If you use the Hartleys data to look at the impact of revenue growth it, the "incremental" govt take is MUCH higher than the "actual", as the increased SRB rate applies to the whole of production, not just to the extra.

My interest therefore lies in production and reserves they prove up outside the NSE area, as for NSE it appears to me the SRB regime means we will see both muted upside and nearly equally muted downside.

I am still keen on CVN longterm, but reckon the SRB has yet to sink in, and that we are currently a little overbought. Reduced last week at 71.5, should have waited for today.

EL