Nikpro, if it got to $45, it would be a great short.
We have to remember that a lot of those people who traveled in the past few years are those that have always experienced an AUD which averaged mostly 75c. It was not too long ago that the pound was $3 aud and it was a big deterrent from travelling in Europe.
I remember travelling to the USA when the dollar was 75c and thinking I was doing well. So, a lot of that generation/my generation now has money to spend and are/were in the mood for holidays and with the AUD at $1.10 you felt like you were getting a holiday for free. And when we travel abroad, we are more inclined to use FLT.
Now with the dollar falling, people will be more inclined to travel domestically. Even though travel to the US or Europe may still be cheap (when compared to aus), people will be very reluctant because they hate to feel like they missed the boat or are getting screwed with the exchange rate.
I remember owning FLT in around 2003 or 04. At that time the AUD was hovering between 69c and 77c. European travel was considered very expensive while US travel was okish. Back then, FLT's share price was around the $18 to $20 mark, but there was a lot of negative sentiment at the time because people were sceptical of its business model with the threat of the internet.
If the share price gets anywhere near $45, the risk/reward would definitely favour the shorts. That's if not it is favouring the shorts already.
FLT Price at posting:
$41.03 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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