JeffN - the most likely scenario from here will be that Molycop...

JeffN - the most likely scenario from here will be that Molycop will be sold off to get as much of the lenders debt back as possible - this will probably happen in August to September this year. Most likely $1.60 Billion sale price though there is a chance of $1.75 Billion with new tariffs put in place.

Of what is remaining, the banks will take a reduction in the amount of debt they are owed and it will continue as a going concern - but with some new board members and managers.  Lenders will probably have to take a 50% cut in the level of debt remaining ($2.8 Billion - $1.70 Billion = A$1.1 Billion x 50% = $550 Million.)  Most likely be back trading on the ASX in late August or September 2016.

If Whyalla is break even, and iron ore holds at about US$48 to US$50 over the next 2 years and they can lower the breakeven cost of MBR Iron Mines to US$38 per tonne, Value of $A is US$0.70 cents, then Iron Ore Mines should earn around A$50 to A$60 Million per year profit after deducting capital expenditure. Still, that will only cover the cost of paying Genesee & Wyoming up to 30/6/2017. Thanks to lapse management in Arrium Legal who did NOT amend the 5 year take or pay contracts WPG signed with them.

The two mini Mills should earn around A$230 million in the current environment with tariff protection put on their product. Once past 30/6/2017, and the ongoing costs for closure of SI Iron Ore Mine are out of the way, you could have a business earning annual EBIT of around A$230 Million plus A$50 million = $280 million.