Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

ARI

0.00%

2.2¢ a.c.n. 004 410 833 limited

Good News, page-274

First 274 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
conan77

367 Posts.

36

16/05/16

22:17

Post #: 17783422
Share

Originally posted by Boges ↑

JeffN - the most likely scenario from here will be that Molycop will be sold off to get as much of the lenders debt back as possible - this will probably happen in August to September this year. Most likely $1.60 Billion sale price though there is a chance of $1.75 Billion with new tariffs put in place.

Of what is remaining, the banks will take a reduction in the amount of debt they are owed and it will continue as a going concern - but with some new board members and managers. Lenders will probably have to take a 50% cut in the level of debt remaining ($2.8 Billion - $1.70 Billion = A$1.1 Billion x 50% = $550 Million.) Most likely be back trading on the ASX in late August or September 2016.

If Whyalla is break even, and iron ore holds at about US$48 to US$50 over the next 2 years and they can lower the breakeven cost of MBR Iron Mines to US$38 per tonne, Value of $A is US$0.70 cents, then Iron Ore Mines should earn around A$50 to A$60 Million per year profit after deducting capital expenditure. Still, that will only cover the cost of paying Genesee & Wyoming up to 30/6/2017. Thanks to lapse management in Arrium Legal who did NOT amend the 5 year take or pay contracts WPG signed with them.

The two mini Mills should earn around A$230 million in the current environment with tariff protection put on their product. Once past 30/6/2017, and the ongoing costs for closure of SI Iron Ore Mine are out of the way, you could have a business earning annual EBIT of around A$230 Million plus A$50 million = $280 million.

Expand

I don't see why the banks need to take a haircut. If post 30/6/2017, the EBIT was $280m then that would be quite sufficient to service a loan of $1.1 billion.

ARI Price at posting: 2.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

LRL

Labyrinth shares rocket by 219% on news of Comet Vale and Vivien gold project acquisitions

ATH

Trial for Alterity's neurodegenerative drug ATH434 shows reduced disability

CTT

Cettire shares jump on FY24 revenue growth up 80% vs pcp – but stock still badly bruised

AI stocks: What to expect in 2024-25

NWC

New World Resources inks complete PFS for Antler Copper Project in Arizona, USA