good sign, page-191

hummy73...

That is a very specific call...I almost hope, for your sake, you are wrong.

lol

Seriously though, if they called a TH today, they would have to announce something Thursday morning, or go into suspension.

So, if they wanted to announce something Friday, they should call a TH tomorrow morning.

Unlike the results of the Phase 1 trials, I would expect the completion of negotiations regarding a deal to be more straight forward to announce...especially given they are doing so behind the scenes now, without a TH...so they possibly may not be needing two complete days to prepare a release.

But...I am not so sure we should expect something pre-xmas anyway...after all, we have already had our "Xmas present" in the form of the phase 1 trial results...and since that passage was penned, the stock is up about 200%.

Of course, it would be nice to get something on a deal to progress ATL1103 as a bonus present, but I am not really expecting it so soon.

Given we know someone is conducting due diligence, I imagine there would be a fair bit of argy-bargy at the negotiating table at some point...and this is not likely to happen until after they have trawled through all the data on results, relationship/ownership/royalty issues with Isis, etc...so a fair bit of legal due diligence also in the mix.

My guess, we will see something early in 2012 (mid Jan?), that will include, among other things, funding for a 12 week phase 2 trial of ATL1103...which I assume they will want to see finished prior to options expiry.

This would be adopting a similar timeframe to Pfizer's Phase 2 trials for Somavert, which involved 112 patients over some 12 weeks. They may even start the initial stages of patient recruitment prior to deals being consummated?

If so, then ANP will want to get a move on as soon as possible in the new year...as the trials will need to start by early/mid March for any chance of results to be in before the options expire.

In the end however, this may not be an issue depending on the colour of any deals, and impact on the value of ANP.

As for other news, there is plenty that could land at any time, but I still see the big one as the progress of ATL1103 to phase 2.

Of course, positive cancer marker results from the phase 1 trial, which we are still waiting news on, would be a bit of a mind bender in terms of market impact on ANP's share price...and could result in an major intra-day/intra-week rally, unlike anything we have seen yet.

To be honest though, positive cancer results from such a short trial are a very big ask, so we should perhaps prepare ourselves for a non-event here, especially if results are inconclusive.

There is nothing wrong with hoping for the best on this issue however.

Cheers!