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26.5¢ synlait milk limited

good time to buy, page-89

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18/03/19

17:41

Post #: 37801221
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Originally posted by Swage_17: ↑

I think a more conservative estimate would be a 25% increase on $40.7 = $50.8million.

Infant formula sales last year, 35,580 mt last year. top end of projection this year is 45,000 mt. Thats roughly a 25 percent increase.

By that logic full year profit should be around $93 million. For a company growing at 25% per year, I think the forward PE should be around 25.

This values the company at 2.3bn ~ a 15% upside to current share price.

Having said that, I think it is very likely that we will an upgrade to total infant formula sales. They already had inventory on hand of 26.7mt. This was built up in anticipation of increased demand for infant formula in FY19. The inventory is almost 60% of the top end of expected sales guidance. My guess is that management expect more growth than 45mt sales for FY19 but gave a conservative figure because it doesnt make sense to build up that much inventory when they only needed 10mt of inventory (plus 35mt of production) to meet the 45mt forecast.

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Already seeing a2m and munchkin grass fed IF with MFD after the end of the 1718FY.

25% increase imho will be well passed but hey it will still beat analysts forecasts.

GLTAH and DYOR

SM1 Price at posting: $10.97 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 26.5¢		Change -0.015(5.36%)		Mkt cap ! $57.92M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
26.5¢	27.0¢	26.5¢	$3.64K	13.73K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	16714	26.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
27.0¢	3836	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	16714	0.265
2	37634	0.260
2	13876	0.255
1	10000	0.250
1	4085	0.245

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.270	3836	1
0.280	3397	1
0.290	13450	2
0.295	10300	2
0.300	3536	2

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