Good time to buy, page-51

Holy moley! I thought I was getting a good price at $2.81 this morning but it was more like getting hit by a steam train.

Been giving this a lot of thought and the only conclusion I can come up with is that given the insto take up was 81%, someone out there decided that it would be a profitable play to push this under $2.89 and convince retail not to take up entitlement and therefore creating an overhang and forcing the underwriter to end up holding the can.
Once the offer closes and the underwriter knows how many shares they have ended up with, the party places a call to the underwriter and says I'll buy your overhang stock at $xxx and by doing so covering their short position.

I'm pretty sure the underwriter is getting live update on the entitlement run rate and is hedging everyday which puts pressure on the stock. So it could be falling simply because of the hedging and of course all the traders that know there will be an overhang and are front running the underwriter.

I also thought that in the last few days before the entitlement closes the underwriter will magically get the stock above $2.89 and get more retail holders over the line but that would actually be market manipulation. Not saying it doesn't happen but I doubt anyone would be that blatant and take the risk. I could be wrong.

Anyway, just my theories which could be all wrong.

Once the price gets below the entitlement price the way it has in this case, it just snowballs and selling begets more selling and it becomes a $hit show as Instos just dump for a small loss and then everyone else starts selling due to the overhang, perceived or otherwise.

Good luck.