Disagree. We'll be hard pressed to see low 5's now. Low 5's had a lot more unknowns than we have now, and technically a downtrend was happening which ended mid 2018.
13 Dec 18: ACCC is concerned about merger. Price gaps to a low of 6.28, then falls to 6 shortly afterwards. Significantly, price rises after that and consolidates and looked ready for a break to the upside. Market was probably still betting on a merger, and it's unknown as to how much the market was bullish on TPM per se.
8 May 19: ACCC opposes TPG-Vodafone merger. Price dropped 13%. BUT recovered quickly, which signifies market bullishness about TPM regardless of a merger. At this stage the 5G rollout cessation was also known by the market as well (ie it did not impact SP recovery).
5 Sep 19: FY19 results released. Market gapped down but closed strongly and price continued to rise in the days after. I perceive the market liked the results overall.
So, we have had two merger rejections, 5G rollout cessation, FY results released, and we have not seen low 5's. Additionally the losses regarding 5G and NBN lower margins are well digested by the market, so if TPM loses in court, the rejection should be less severe than previously. SP is in fact rising now. Technically this looks strong.
