There is another angle to this for AIZ and that is the with the 13% going to HNA it dilutes AIZ's share from 25.9% to 22.5% and there is still another CR to come from Virgin that will dilute AIZ's share even further
The talk is the CR may target $1b and VAH's MC is only $1b so thats a pretty hefty dilution event ie 50% so we have the diluted share at 22.5% with another 50% dilution taking them to 11.75%
BUT if AIZ is diluted to under 20% then it needs no government permission to sell its stake and after the CR and the sp may well be a lot higher if it all comes off alright especially if HNA sign up to take a good % which they would need to becasue a 50% dilution on their current 13% would leave them at 6.5%
How do I get the 50% dilution? VAH current MC is $1b and the CR looks likley to target raising $1b in other words twice as many shares... its ugly for every existing VAH sh including singapore airlines & etihad & of course AIZ..
A CR would also have to offered at a discount to get punters on board so the dilution may be even greater..what a dogs breakfast - no wander AIZ wanted Borghetti gone and I don't think it made a shred of difference them not sitting on the board for this as they only had one vote anyway from my reading along with singapore 1 and etihad 1 so 3 votes against the rest of the board...
Wander why Branson thought over the weekend that a deal with AIZ's VAH shares was going to be done within the next couple of weeks? - he would have known what's been happening you'd think?
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