good value, page-11

"Subject: re: nw alice to be abandoned
Stock Code: EMR - EMERALD OIL & GAS NL
Posted: 02/05/07 10:42 Hotcopper Radio: EMR on BoardRoom Radio
Posted By: leongchai Views: 61
Post #: 1751973 (In Reply to msg #1751906 from kelix) Sentiment: Buy
IP: 125.238.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: No Stock Held
Most would agree that we can just about write NW alice off now...and the canning drills are risky at best, didn't the ARQ publication put the chance of success at 17% or something like that?"


The Canning drills have a good chance of finding oil & gas. If you read back over the history of the tenement, where they are drilling is adjacent to another O&G discovery. The fact that hydrocarbons were found nearby reduces the risk and gives us a better chance of success than drilling in a greenfield area.

It was actually StockAnalysis that gave a success rate of 17%, not ARQ. I wouldn't give much notice to that figure, as its really just given to provide a risk-weighted valuation. ARQ would never give such a probability, but are known to be bullish on the Canning basin prospects.