Goodbye $0.80, page-126

morning all,

finally had an email exchange with NC yesterday - and, yes, I am beginning to see why jstall and NC are saying the focus on listing is not required.

I won't go into that in as much detail as I should now as I want a bit more time to think about it and will have some questions whether or not my assumptions are in the ball park.

I have had a few things wrong lately - right up front, I will say, I think I have had the progress of the business incorrect.

I think I have been under doing it - ie. I think it is far more advance than even I thought - so, that would be good.

What I did clearly get wrong were the dates that NC was in Australia - the confusion came because of my misreading of his emails - we both fire them off rapidly when it happens and often he is tired.

So - to correct what I did believe to now what I believe -

He did indeed have a very important engagement last Tuesday night that I had known about (someone I have been following for a while).
Later he is flying to Australia (probably on the way now, or close) - as far as I can work out - he arrives Monday morning - probably in Sydney.
He has meetings all day Tuesday and one on Wednesday morning then flies out back to the US - to be there in time for a function on Thanksgiving.

Now - again NC was at pains to say I/we are focusing too much on the listing -------

OK - I misread that over the weeks as well - to me, listing is a big deal - yes, I know it has nothing to do with how the business is running ------- I get that.

But, I also get that to shareholders - at least many of us - it is a very big deal. So - I thought everyone knew that and that my/our perhaps misguided focus was all about when - apparently not.

I said in the last week that Parsifal and I had sensed something has changed here - and, from yesterday, I think we have confirmation of that.

This is the words Nick used to give me that impression -

"When we thought we needed it, it was important but we are well past that now. The only benefit left (which was the second reason to list) was to open AJX to a wider and larger marketplace, where we can enjoy the rewards of a good days on the US exchange and the ASX where one can prop up the other."

Now - there is more - but, there is at least half an hours thinking through those few words.

This 'well past that now' business - that is very different language from what I remember hearing only a couple of months back.

So - to me - it very much sounds like - they need us far more now than we need them.
( one can debate why - there is a whole discussion in this sentence alone I reckon).

Next -
"It will increase our overall value in the business, and you know what Pinto, to tell you the honest truth, if I feel that its going to look like a mess, I’ll pull the pin."

Ok - fine - that's consistent - he has been saying that for yonks -- basically, if we don't get a good deal and a top chance of the value of the company being looked after --------- we won't push the button - and 100% for certain, when we push the button - we will push it when we think the time is right.

Oh, btw - he is very confident of getting the F1 - so, that is not an issue atm (btw - I still don't know once the SEC says we can go - how long a window we have - if anyone knows - I would be grateful).

Next - he is very aware of the market this year for Aussies

"Every Aussie company to date that has rushed to the US markets this year, have been a total disaster. Im not going to have AJX suffer the same"

Self explanatory.


OK - this next bit - I have fixed up a spelling or two - and I have ??? edited a bit of the language - you should get the drift .

" Pricing is the key. I'm no man's fool, I'm not going to lose my own value let along anyone else's. If the Americans want to be greedy and the price isn’t right, then ?????????? (make your own words). I’ll either wait or bring it right back home (If I need to)"


So, again - it seems that we are far far far further down the track than I thought - we will go with NY if conditions are right for us (and, the deal is right) -

OK - I have got that ---------- but, if we don't need NY - then, we surely don't need Australia either - am I right there or not?

Now - ok, I see all this as a number of things.

1. the business ----------- flying, I never doubted that - and, I know for certain that there is a lot more out there than has been announced - I get that from several sources - I get that there are fish so big, biting so strongly atm that they make TP and DoD (known) look like live bait.

2. Exchange and institutional support - I get that we don't need exposure to the magic NY market - it still would be nice - but, we don't need it - and, we certainly don't need it for survival

3. And, here lies my problem - how do we, as shareholders, get our 'value' out of this?

ie. - If we go to NY - sure, the market may take us into orbit - but, equally, by all that is said - it could just wallow - just like here -- not expected if timing is right - but, possible.

If we don't go to NY - then we are here in Australia -------- fine by me - but, just exactly when and how would we get value -------------- IN our portfolios?

We have stalled at around this 80 mark - now, although the business is very strong - and, I can see that there are say two factors that are highly likely that have put us back to this 80 (aside from anything hidden) - and, those two factors would be - BY getting out of some of their own position - which I would see as common sense - and at the same time perhaps a degree of movement from Rappers funding their RAP by selling some AJX.

Now - that all makes sense to me ------------ but, after all that -- after the rappers and say after BY get their load off - which, may happen next week off market possibly (my idea) or ON market because NC works his magic in his presentations --

where do we go from there?

Will we have to wait before the revenue is really in the bank - and the SP is judged from there?
OK - I see that as possible - but, that takes NO account of future - and, atm, the future is looking far in excess of what I wasn't even game to write about on HC when I started writing about it.

Will we have to wait for a bid - to get anywhere near full value?

Parsifal, who I have given up hoping to win an argument against - has studied many deals and dealt with the aftermath of - deals that are far bigger than we can see AJX has on the horizon at present - she says she would not be surprised to see a huge bid come 'sooner than later' -

And, I said - we are at 80 cents - are you telling me we could have a bid of over 10 bucks - god knows how much higher?

She said yes.

Or, will, even if we stay in Australia - the SP rise strongly to reflect what the market sees is success? - ie. as quarterlies and halves get stronger -------- my friend Parsifal sees that.

Well - on the last score - I see that if BY sales have been creating or partially creating this correction - and, if NC convinces an institution and some well heeled investors to take some interest next week - then, our little hard to read correction may well be history - and, it will be up from there.

That would coincide nicely with a xmas rally, if we are going to have one - then, on to the half report/4C - which - I again predict will be solid.

If AJX does indeed do something like - say quadruple revenue each quarter for 3 or 4 quarters - then, the business will look completely different to what it does now - and, logically - that 'should' reflect in the SP ------------- but, will it?

So - on a lot of this future vision stuff I am confused - not by the business - thank god, that is rock solid - but, on how and when we will see what is in the black and white of our portfolios.

NC has told me for ages that we should not have looked at the dollars in 2015 - but, to look to the dollars in 2016 ----------- ok, I got that - but, the dollars in 2016 now - to me are pretty well guaranteed ----------- what is different is the sales potential and conversions -------- are far far far advanced then we could have ever dreamed at the start of the year - and, that, to me is NOT reflected in the price.

I can only assume that on Tuesday NC will meet with Fosters ----- he didn't say - but, I am only assuming - if that is correct - we will probably get another report - which, with luck will cement some of this stuff - and, I can only assume that their target will be way above $1.20.

Anyway - sorry, hell of a ramble at the end - I am trying to get my head around this new environment - the game has changed and I am just trying to catch up with were we really are.

Have a great sunday

Pinto